My Perspective - ‘In like a lion, out like a lamb’

By Jim Palmer

In February, the country’s most popular groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow, meaning we are in for another six weeks of winter. Mark March 15 on your calendar. That is when spring will officially arrive this year.

Of course, this old folklore, which dates back to settlers in the 1700s, has not ever been considered an accurate tool in our meteorologic toolbox. It’s been correct only about 40 percent of the time.

The groundhog’s prediction also gears us up for the next piece of weather folklore, which centers around the month of March... “In like a lion, out like a lamb.” The meaning is fairly easy to translate — If the month starts out with storms, the month will end with comfortable and fair weather. And the nice thing about this one... you can flip it around, so if it is calm coming into March it will be turbulent at the end of March. 

This saying comes from the 1700s and has links to a few different places. In astronomy, the sun is in the constellation Leo (the lion) in early March before it moves to Aries (the ram or lamb) in late March/early April. There are also biblical references to lions and lambs and some believe it has a connection to the timing of Easter. Many believe the saying came about to reflect ancestral belief in balance and the transition from winter to spring. There is also a theory (that I just started) that focuses around one guy who came up with this saying after staring at snowbanks for three months. He mentioned the phrase to a couple other guys and they thought it sounded good. Eventually it spread and ended up in a farmer’s almanac. And the rest is history.

When I was young, I remember monitoring the beginning and end of March for at least a few years to see if it was true. My findings were inconclusive. One year it was spot on. The next, it was two lambs. The next year, two lions. My findings were about on par with what the researchers found. Turns out, this piece of folklore is only right about 40-60 percent of the time (depending on where you live in the US).

You may have noticed, both the groundhog and the lion/lamb predictions are pretty close to that 50 percent mark. Coincidentally, that is the same percentage that a flipped coin lands as heads or tails. That being said, I’m glad that both of these old folklores are still being used. It makes life more interesting. 

And as long as we are on the subject, here are some more weather proverbs and predictors. Each have varying degrees of accuracy — and often include an animal or nature as their guide.

“If the goose honks high, fair weather. If the goose honks low, foul weather.” Indication of high barometric pressure, which typically translates to good weather.

“If spiders are many and spinning their webs, the spell will soon be very dry.” Spiders are aware that their webs don’t do well when there is a lot of moisture in the air... so when spiders are not active, that usually means rain is on the way.

“Red sky at night, sailor’s delight; red sky in morning, sailor’s warning.” Maybe the most well-known on this list – and many people  swear by it. Experts say this can be fairly accurate if the red night sky appears in the west sky. A red sunset indicates high pres-

“Frogs croaking in the lagoon, means rain will come real soon.” This is an indication of higher temps and humidity, as frogs become more active in those conditions.

“When the ass begins to bray, surely rain will come that day.” Low pressure is often a good first indicator of storms, and animals get more irritable and active on low pressure days.

“The ash before the oak — choke, choke, choke; the oak before the ash — splash, splash, splash.” If ash buds before the oaks, expect a drier summer. If reverse, a wetter summer is coming. The timing of the buds relates to the moisture content in the soil, so there is some scientific truth in this one.

Although things can change, as of right now it looks like March will be coming in like a lamb for most of our readers. In other words, if you have plans for an outside activity at the end of March, good luck! There is 40-60 percent chance it could be a mess (or perfect weather).